Friday, October 16, 2026

Science Is a Team Sport Across Generations

The popular image of science still loves the solitary genius.

Newton under his apple tree.

Darwin with his notebooks.

Einstein at his desk.

Real science is much noisier.

It involves students, technicians, statisticians, reviewers, software developers, competing laboratories, databases, previous generations of researchers and people who notice that something in somebody else's paper does not quite add up.

The National Academies report puts this directly:

“Science is a communal enterprise.”

Scientific claims become valuable partly because other scientists can inspect them.

That requires communication.

Another researcher should be able to understand what was measured, how samples were chosen, how data were processed, which observations were excluded, what statistical assumptions were made and how much uncertainty accompanies the result.

Without those details, a published result becomes strangely isolated.

Others may cite it.

They may even believe it.

But they cannot properly interrogate it.

This is why transparency is not merely a fashionable add-on to science. It is part of the mechanism through which science becomes collective knowledge.

The report describes science as a process in which researchers confirm, dispute and refine one another's findings. The ability to scrutinize claims allows confidence to accumulate over time.

That also explains why criticism in science should not automatically be interpreted as hostility.

When another laboratory tries to replicate your result, it is subjecting the claim to one of the processes through which scientific knowledge becomes stronger.

When somebody finds a limitation, they may have discovered the boundary of the phenomenon.

And boundaries are scientifically interesting.

A biological effect that exists only in juveniles, only under nutritional stress, only within a certain genetic background or only at a particular temperature tells us more about the underlying mechanism than the original claim that the effect happens everywhere.

Science therefore advances not only when someone says yes.

It also advances when someone asks:

Under exactly what conditions is that yes actually true?

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Further reading: This post is based on Reproducibility and Replicability in Science, a consensus study report of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Reproducibility and Replicability in Science. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. DOI: 10.17226/25303.


Thursday, October 15, 2026

Reproducibility and Replicability Are Not the Same Thing

Scientists frequently use reproducibility and replicability as though they mean the same thing.

The National Academies report deliberately separates them.

That distinction is extremely useful, particularly now that so much research depends on computation.

Suppose I publish a genomic analysis.

I provide the sequencing data, scripts, software versions and parameter settings. You download exactly those materials, run exactly my analysis and obtain the same results.

That is reproducibility.

Now imagine that you collect a completely new biological dataset to test the same scientific question. You analyse those new data and obtain results consistent with mine.

That is replicability.

The report defines reproducibility as obtaining consistent results using the same input data and computational procedures, whereas replication involves another study addressing the same scientific question using newly obtained data.

There is a third concept too:

generalizability.

A finding may reproduce perfectly and replicate in another experiment, but does it hold in another population, species, laboratory, climate, time period or experimental context?

That is a different question.

These distinctions matter because each tests a different layer of scientific reliability.

Reproducibility asks:

Can I reconstruct what you actually did?

Replicability asks:

Does the phenomenon appear again when we gather new evidence?

Generalizability asks:

How far beyond the original circumstances does the finding extend?

And crucially, they need not succeed or fail together.

A computational result can be perfectly reproducible yet scientifically wrong. If a programming error exists in the original code, rerunning the same erroneous code can faithfully reproduce the same erroneous answer.

Conversely, a meticulously performed study may fail to replicate because the biological or social system being studied contains previously unidentified variation.

So asking simply, Did it replicate? can be far too crude.

The better questions are:

What exactly was tested?

What changed?

How large was the uncertainty?

And what does the disagreement teach us?

Those questions lead to better science than a binary stamp reading PASS or FAIL.

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Further reading: This post is based on Reproducibility and Replicability in Science, a consensus study report of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Reproducibility and Replicability in Science. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. DOI: 10.17226/25303.


Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Science Is Supposed to Change Its Mind

One of the easiest ways to misunderstand science is to imagine it as a warehouse of facts. A result enters the warehouse, acquires the label scientifically proven, and remains there forever.

That is not how science works.

The National Academies report Reproducibility and Replicability in Science presents a much more interesting picture. Scientific knowledge develops through discovery, confirmation, criticism and correction. New evidence can strengthen an existing explanation, reveal its limits, or occasionally force scientists to replace it.

The report captures this beautifully in three words: scientific knowledge is “durable and mutable.”

Those two qualities might seem contradictory.

Durable means that well-supported scientific knowledge does not evaporate every time a new paper appears. Newtonian mechanics did not become useless when relativity was developed. Existing knowledge survives because it has accumulated evidence behind it.

Mutable means that no scientific claim receives immunity from new evidence.

Better instruments can reveal things that older instruments could not detect. Larger datasets can uncover patterns hidden in small samples. New experiments can identify conditions under which an apparently universal relationship no longer applies.

That ability to change is not a defect in science. It is one of its central strengths.

The report's preface uses changes in nutritional and medical advice to illustrate the danger of speaking too confidently about what we currently believe to be true. Scientific conclusions generally arrive with some degree of uncertainty, and repeated confirmation increases confidence rather than magically transforming a claim into absolute truth.

This is why a paper that overturns an earlier result does not necessarily mean that someone previously failed at science.

Sometimes the new study is wrong.

Sometimes the original study was wrong.

Sometimes both studies are correct under different conditions.

And sometimes the disagreement reveals a variable nobody previously knew mattered.

The scientific process is designed to sort among these possibilities.

The deeper lesson is therefore surprisingly optimistic: science progresses not because scientists never make mistakes, but because scientific claims remain exposed to interrogation.

A scientific result is not carved into stone.

It enters a conversation.

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Further reading: This post is based on Reproducibility and Replicability in Science, a consensus study report of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Reproducibility and Replicability in Science. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. DOI: 10.17226/25303.


Tuesday, October 13, 2026

Is It Still Science If It Isn't New?

 We often talk about science as if its defining feature were novelty.

A scientist discovers something nobody has seen before. A new species is found. A new gene function is reported. A new mechanism is proposed. A new theory explains an old observation.

And because scientific papers are expected to make a "novel contribution," it is tempting to equate science with discovering something new.

But that raises a deceptively simple question:

If an experiment tells us nothing new, is it still science?

And an even more interesting one:

If an experiment is perfectly reproducible, but the interpretation of its results is wrong, is it still science?

The answer to both questions is essentially yes—but with important distinctions.

Science is not the same thing as novelty. Novelty describes a contribution to knowledge. Science describes a way of generating, testing, communicating, and correcting knowledge about the world.

That distinction changes how we think about scientific research.


Science is more than discovery

Imagine that a researcher performs an experiment and obtains a result that has already been reported ten times.

At first glance, it might seem that nothing scientific has happened. There is no discovery. No new phenomenon. No new fact.

But suppose the researcher carefully repeats the experiment with a different population, laboratory, instrument, organism, or environmental condition.

The result is again obtained.

The experiment has not necessarily produced a novel fact. But it has done something scientifically valuable: it has provided confirmation.

Science does not consist only of asking:

"What has nobody seen before?"

It also asks:

"Is what we think we know actually reliable?"

That is why replication matters.

A replicated result may be completely unsurprising, yet still contribute to the reliability of scientific knowledge.


Discovery is science—but science is not only discovery

The U.S. National Academies describe scientific knowledge as developing through discovery, confirmation, and correction.

That three-part description is useful because it immediately takes us beyond the popular image of the lone scientist making a spectacular discovery.

Consider three researchers.

Researcher 1: Discovery

They investigate a poorly studied organism and discover that a particular gene is completely absent from its genome.

Nobody had previously reported this.

If the observation is supported by appropriate genomic evidence, this is a scientific discovery.

It adds something previously unknown to our knowledge of nature.

Researcher 2: Confirmation

Another scientist investigates the same gene in independently generated genomes and finds the same absence.

They haven't discovered a new fact.

But they have strengthened the evidence that the original observation was genuine.

That is also science.

Researcher 3: Correction

A third scientist discovers that both studies overlooked a highly divergent copy of the gene.

The apparent "gene loss" was actually an annotation problem.

Again, science has happened.

The third study has not merely failed to discover something new. It has corrected an existing scientific claim.

And correction is not an embarrassment that sits outside science.

It is one of the ways science works.


What about a wrong interpretation?

This is where things become particularly interesting.

Suppose an experiment is beautifully designed.

The measurements are reliable.

The experiment is independently replicated.

Everyone agrees on the observed result.

But the researchers interpret the result incorrectly.

Does that make the experiment non-science?

No.

We need to separate the observation from the interpretation.

Consider this simplified chain:

Experiment → Data → Observation → Interpretation → Conclusion

Each step makes a different claim.

Suppose an experiment shows that treatment X causes gene Y to become more highly expressed.

That observation may be completely reproducible.

The researchers then conclude:

"Therefore, gene Y causes cell proliferation."

But their experiment never manipulated gene Y. It only measured its expression.

The causal interpretation may therefore be wrong.

The experiment can still be scientifically sound.

The data can still be scientifically useful.

The conclusion can still be wrong.

And, importantly, discovering that the conclusion was wrong can itself become part of science.


Reproducibility does not make an interpretation true

This distinction is easy to miss.

We sometimes talk about reproducibility as though it were a guarantee of truth.

It isn't.

Imagine that ten laboratories independently reproduce an experimental observation.

That gives us increasing confidence that the observation is real.

But it does not necessarily establish that we understand what the observation means.

You can therefore have:

Highly reproducible data + highly reproducible analysis + an incorrect interpretation.

Consider a diagnostic assay that consistently produces a particular molecular signal.

The reproducibility tells us that the signal is reliably generated.

But we still have to establish what the signal represents.

Is it:

  • the presence of a particular protein?
  • a cross-reacting molecule?
  • a degradation product?
  • a related paralog?
  • an artifact of the assay?
  • or genuinely the biological entity being claimed?

Reproducibility answers one question:

"Does this observation reliably occur?"

It does not necessarily answer:

"Why does it occur?"

And certainly not:

"Does our preferred explanation for it have to be true?"


An experiment can be scientific even when its conclusion is wrong

This is an uncomfortable but fundamental feature of science.

Science is not a magical procedure that converts experiments into truth.

Scientists can make mistakes.

They can misunderstand mechanisms.

They can overinterpret correlations.

They can mistake artifacts for biological signals.

They can construct explanations that later turn out to be wrong.

What distinguishes science is not that scientists are always correct.

It is that scientific claims are supposed to remain open to empirical challenge and correction.

A wrong scientific hypothesis can therefore be perfectly legitimate science.

The problem arises when the evidence is presented as establishing something it does not establish, particularly when alternative explanations are ignored or contradictory evidence is suppressed.

The experiment may remain scientific.

The claim about what the experiment demonstrates may not.


Does science require novelty?

This is where scientific research and scientific publishing sometimes get confused.

There are at least two different questions:

Question 1

Is this science?

Question 2

Is this a sufficiently novel contribution to publish in this particular journal?

They are not the same question.

A replication study can be science even if a journal decides that it lacks sufficient novelty.

A careful reanalysis of existing data can be science.

A correction of an existing result can be science.

A negative result can be science.

A methodological validation can be science.

A failure to reproduce an influential result can be science.

A careful measurement that confirms something we already strongly suspected can be science.

None necessarily requires discovering a previously unknown fact.

Novelty is therefore a property of the contribution, not the defining property of science itself.


What kinds of science can lack novelty?

Consider several possibilities.

1. Replication

"We performed the experiment again and obtained the same result."

No new phenomenon may have been discovered.

But the reliability of the existing observation has been tested.

Science? Yes.


2. Confirmation

"Using an independent method, we obtain evidence consistent with the existing conclusion."

Again, there may be little or no novelty in the phenomenon itself.

But independent evidence can strengthen scientific knowledge.

Science? Yes.


3. Falsification or refutation

"We tested a previously accepted prediction and found that it does not hold."

This may not discover a new phenomenon.

Instead, it removes support from an existing explanation.

Science? Absolutely.


4. Correction

"The earlier observation was real, but the proposed explanation was incorrect."

The new study may not discover anything fundamentally new.

It may simply establish that our interpretation of existing evidence needs revision.

Science? Yes.


5. Methodological validation

"We tested whether this experimental technique actually measures what researchers think it measures."

The study may produce no new biological discovery whatsoever.

But it can establish whether a tool is reliable.

Science? Yes.


6. Negative results

"We predicted that X would happen, but under these conditions it does not."

The absence of an expected effect can be scientifically informative.

Indeed, a scientific framework in which only positive results count would systematically distort our understanding of nature.

Science? Yes.


7. Reanalysis of existing data

Suppose all the data already exist.

A researcher develops a new statistical analysis and asks whether the original conclusion follows from the data.

No new experiment is performed.

No new organism is collected.

No new molecule is discovered.

Yet the analysis may reveal that the original conclusion was unsupported—or that an overlooked pattern exists in the existing data.

Science? It can be.

Science is not defined by whether new data were personally generated. It is defined by what is being done with evidence and how claims about the world are evaluated.


But then what is novelty for?

If novelty isn't what makes something science, why do scientists care so much about it?

Because science is not only about producing reliable knowledge.

It is also about extending the frontier of knowledge.

A research paper generally needs to answer:

"What does this work add?"

That addition might be a new observation.

Or a new explanation.

Or a new method.

Or stronger evidence.

Or a correction.

Or a previously unrecognized limitation.

Or a demonstration that a supposedly general phenomenon does not generalize.

Thus, novelty is enormously important for scientific progress and publication, even though it is not the defining characteristic of scientific activity.

A useful distinction is:

Science asks whether a claim is empirically justified.

Scientific novelty asks whether the resulting knowledge adds something not already known.

Those are different axes.


And what about an incorrect scientific paper?

This brings us to perhaps the most uncomfortable conclusion.

A paper can be:

  • scientifically conducted,
  • carefully executed,
  • reproducible,
  • transparently reported,

and nevertheless contain a wrong interpretation.

That does not necessarily mean the work was "not science."

Instead, we should ask which component is wrong.

Perhaps the measurement was wrong.

Perhaps the experiment was incapable of distinguishing competing hypotheses.

Perhaps the statistical inference was inappropriate.

Perhaps the causal interpretation went beyond the evidence.

Perhaps the biological mechanism was misunderstood.

Perhaps a later study revealed an overlooked alternative explanation.

These distinctions matter because otherwise we fall into a binary way of thinking:

Correct = science
Incorrect = not science

But science doesn't work that way.

If it did, there would be no need for scientific correction.


The deeper idea: science is a process, not a truth machine

Perhaps the most useful way to think about science is not:

Science = discovering new facts.

Nor:

Science = producing correct answers.

Rather:

Science is a systematic, evidence-based process through which claims about the natural world are generated, tested, challenged, communicated, confirmed, refined, and corrected.

Within that process, discovery is one activity.

Replication is another.

Confirmation is another.

Refutation is another.

Correction is another.

And explanation is another.

Some produce novelty.

Some don't.

Some ultimately produce correct conclusions.

Some don't.

Yet all can participate in science.


The paradox

There is therefore a fascinating paradox at the heart of science:

A study can be scientifically valuable without discovering anything new.

And:

A study can discover something genuinely new while getting its interpretation wrong.

The first tells us that novelty is not necessary for something to be science.

The second tells us that being new is not sufficient for something to be scientifically established.

What matters is the relationship between evidence and claims.

A new observation requires evidence.

An old observation can be tested again.

An interpretation must be justified.

A conclusion must not exceed what the evidence supports.

And when we get something wrong, science has a mechanism—at least in principle—for finding out that we were wrong.

Perhaps that is a more useful definition of science than the popular image of scientists constantly discovering spectacular new things.

Science is not simply the business of finding what nobody knew before.

It is the collective process of figuring out what we have good reason to believe about the world—and continuously finding out where we were wrong.

Sunday, October 11, 2026

Forgotten Crops May Be Part of Agriculture's Future

The final section of the article turns archaeology toward the future.

This is perhaps its most important message.

Studying ancient agriculture is not merely about discovering where wheat came from.

The archaeological record represents thousands of years of experiments in agricultural resilience.

And many of those experiments have been forgotten.

Diversity repeatedly rises and falls

Early domestication often incorporated variation from multiple populations.

But isolation can gradually erode that diversity.

The same process occurs at the level of farming systems.

Agricultural communities once cultivated many crop combinations that later disappeared.

Some species became marginal crops.

Others vanished from large parts of their former ranges.

A crop can go from important to nearly invisible

The paper highlights Triticum timopheevi.

This wheat was once cultivated across a large region.

Archaeological evidence places it in parts of Turkey before 6000 BC.

It eventually spread from central Europe toward Turkmenistan.

Yet during later periods its range contracted dramatically.

By the twentieth century it had become largely associated with Georgia.

The crop did not cease being biologically viable.

Agricultural history moved around it.

“Orphan crops” are evolutionary libraries

Many under-studied crops may contain useful characteristics:

drought tolerance,

disease resistance,

adaptation to poor soils,

nutritional qualities,

unusual perennial growth,

or compatibility with local farming systems.

Modern agriculture is heavily concentrated around a relatively small number of globally dominant crops.

That concentration creates efficiency, but also vulnerability.

A changing climate makes those vulnerabilities harder to ignore.

Archaeology can become agricultural research

Usually we imagine modern agricultural science helping us understand ancient farming.

The authors propose reversing the direction.

Ancient agriculture can help us imagine future agricultural systems.

Archaeobotany tells us which crops survived particular climatic fluctuations.

Genomics reveals where ancient populations acquired new genetic diversity.

Archaeology documents agricultural systems that persisted for centuries or millennia.

Historical crop distributions reveal species that were once important but later abandoned.

Together, these records form a gigantic natural experiment conducted across thousands of years.

The final lesson

The history of domestication is not a story of humans progressively perfecting a few plants.

It is a history of experimentation, hybridisation, ecological engineering, accidental selection, migration, loss and renewal.

Agricultural diversity has repeatedly contracted.

But it has also repeatedly been rebuilt when people moved crops, exchanged seeds and brought previously separated populations together.

The future of agriculture may therefore depend partly on recovering something that the past possessed in abundance:

options. 🌾

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Further reading: This post is inspired by and draws on Dorian Q. Fuller, Tim Denham, and Robin Allaby, “Plant domestication and agricultural ecologies,” Current Biology 33, no. 11 (2023): R636–R649, doi:10.1016/j.cub.2023.04.038. Read the original article in Current Biology
For a classic and highly readable perspective on why plant domestication arose in some regions but not others, see Jared Diamond, Chapter 8, “Apples or Indians: Why Did Peoples of Some Regions Fail to Domesticate Plants?”, in Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies (W. W. Norton, 1997), pp. 131–156. Read “Apples or Indians” View Guns, Germs, and Steel on Google Books

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Saturday, October 10, 2026

Why Some Crops Conquered Continents While Others Stayed Home

Some domesticated plants spread astonishingly far.

Wheat and barley moved across huge portions of Eurasia.

Rice spread from China across much of Asia.

Maize moved far beyond Mesoamerica.

Pearl millet expanded beyond West Africa.

Other crops remained geographically restricted.

Why?

The article highlights two especially important variables:

time and productivity.

Older crops had longer to travel

A crop domesticated several thousand years earlier simply had more opportunities to spread through migration and exchange.

But age is not enough.

Agricultural productivity influences human demography.

Productivity changes population movement

A highly productive crop can support relatively high population densities.

Under lower productivity, communities may reach the effective carrying capacity of a local environment more quickly.

This can encourage group fission.

Some people establish new settlements.

Crops travel with them.

Paradoxically, under certain circumstances a less productive agricultural system might therefore promote faster territorial expansion.

Carrying capacity is not fixed

The paper wisely treats carrying capacity as “notional.”

A landscape does not possess one permanent human carrying capacity.

It changes with:

technology,

labour,

crop choice,

soil management,

climate,

water availability,

and cultivation strategy.

Humans continually modify the ecological ceiling they are approaching.

Some forgotten crops may simply have missed history's transport network

A crop remaining local does not necessarily mean it is agronomically inferior.

Historical circumstances matter.

Enset in Ethiopia, oca in the Andes and browntop millet in India are examples discussed in the paper of crops whose geographical spread remained limited.

Their unrealised agricultural potential may therefore be considerable.

History's winners are not automatically biology's best candidates.

Sometimes they were simply the crops standing nearest the door when human populations began moving.

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Further reading: This post is inspired by and draws on Dorian Q. Fuller, Tim Denham, and Robin Allaby, “Plant domestication and agricultural ecologies,” Current Biology 33, no. 11 (2023): R636–R649, doi:10.1016/j.cub.2023.04.038. Read the original article in Current Biology
For a classic and highly readable perspective on why plant domestication arose in some regions but not others, see Jared Diamond, Chapter 8, “Apples or Indians: Why Did Peoples of Some Regions Fail to Domesticate Plants?”, in Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies (W. W. Norton, 1997), pp. 131–156. Read “Apples or Indians” View Guns, Germs, and Steel on Google Books

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Friday, October 9, 2026

Domestication Did Not Necessarily Begin with a Genetic Bottleneck

A classic genetic model of domestication predicts a bottleneck.

A small subset of a wild population is selected.

Those individuals become the founders of the crop.

Genetic diversity collapses.

Strong selection then fixes important domestication alleles.

This certainly can happen.

But the review argues that it is not an adequate general model for early plant domestication.

Archaeology predicts weak selection

If domestication took thousands of generations, selection could have been relatively weak.

Under weak selection, more individuals remain within the reproducing population.

That preserves diversity.

Genomes reveal multiple contributors

Ancient and modern genomic data increasingly indicate that several crops incorporated genetic material from multiple wild populations.

Barley, emmer, maize and bananas all provide examples of complex histories.

Instead of:

wild population → bottleneck → crop,

the history may resemble:

multiple wild populations ↔ cultivated populations ↔ migration ↔ hybridisation → crop metapopulation.

Gene flow can rescue crops

One of the most important examples discussed in the paper concerns sorghum.

Ancient sorghum genomes from Nubia suggest that genetic load increased through time.

Isolation can allow harmful variation to accumulate or useful diversity to disappear.

But contact with other sorghum populations can introduce new variation.

This process is known as genomic rescue.

Hybridisation, far from contaminating a pure crop lineage, can therefore restore resilience.

Purity may be the wrong metaphor

Modern breeding often emphasises uniformity.

Ancient domestication frequently appears to have benefited from mixture.

The history of successful crops may therefore be partly a history of repeatedly reconnecting populations.

Agricultural resilience sometimes grows from genetic messiness.

That lesson has obvious consequences for modern crop conservation.

Wild relatives, traditional landraces and geographically isolated crop populations should not be viewed simply as museum pieces.

They represent reservoirs of evolutionary options.

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Further reading: This post is inspired by and draws on Dorian Q. Fuller, Tim Denham, and Robin Allaby, “Plant domestication and agricultural ecologies,” Current Biology 33, no. 11 (2023): R636–R649, doi:10.1016/j.cub.2023.04.038. Read the original article in Current Biology
For a classic and highly readable perspective on why plant domestication arose in some regions but not others, see Jared Diamond, Chapter 8, “Apples or Indians: Why Did Peoples of Some Regions Fail to Domesticate Plants?”, in Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies (W. W. Norton, 1997), pp. 131–156. Read “Apples or Indians” View Guns, Germs, and Steel on Google Books

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